New York’s transition to a low-carbon economy is expected to reshape the state’s workforce—but the scale of job creation is projected to far outweigh job displacement. The Just Transition Working Group’s 2021 Jobs Study, updated in 2023 using inputs aligned with the State’s Final Scoping Plan, modeled employment changes across electricity, fuels, buildings, and transportation.
Employment across these sectors is projected to increase by at least 189,000 jobs between 2019 and 2030, a 38 percent increase, and by at least 257,000 jobs by 2050. Much of that growth is expected to come from the buildings sector, particularly residential HVAC and building-shell work. At the same time, the transition will create real displacement: conventional fueling stations account for more than 40 percent of projected job losses through 2030.
The study also points to the potential for the clean energy transition to bolster the middle of the labor market: the largest employment gains are projected among jobs paying $28 to $37 per hour. Download the Jobs Study and learn more about BW Research’s work on developing employment impact models and evaluating workforce implications related to the energy sector in New York State.
